Green molecule chain
The 2,000-cow Berlin train is already certified to RED II. The same flowsheet is drawn at 60,000 cows. Egypt’s Year-50 herd is 6.4 million — more than one hundred of those blocks, sequenced, not one EPC package.
Manure leaves the barn and enters equipment the brief names and, in places, photographs. The pictures are German and European references. The offtakes are not signed because a camera was there.
Reference · Obrist pack
Two membrane roofs in low sun. This is the pack’s picture of biogas: manure captured and held, not vented. On the cow energy balance, biogas and stall air are 64 of the 142 GJ that leave the animal. Methane credits are the second line of Year-50 revenue, €26.9 billion, and the workbook does not treat that line the same way on every sheet. The photograph does not close that gap.
Reference · Obrist pack
A tank, a rack of pipe, a low industrial roof. The proven-technology collage places this yard beside the names on the flowsheet: Proweps EnviroTec for biogas, Roesslein for methane above 98.5 percent by volume, then EflOX and Cryotec. The certificate cited is Normec REDcert, March 2024. Egypt’s FEED is told to copy that list and resize it, not to invent a process.
Reference · Obrist pack
A container hall with the doors open: compressors, a vessel, bollards, paving. The marks on the doors read Box and eflex, the conversion step named in the train. This is the scale the 2,000-cow demonstration actually shows. The same flowsheet is drawn again at 60,000 cows, and at 100,000 tonnes of aMethanol a year. Year-50 Egypt is 6.4 million cows — more than a hundred of those blocks. The brief says to sequence them. It does not say to buy them in one construction package.
Reference · Obrist pack
Vessels and columns under a hard sky. The collage sets this skid next to the Cryotec name. The grades printed on that slide are hydrogen up to 99.9 percent and food-grade carbon dioxide up to 99.998 percent. Food-grade CO₂ is a €6 million sales line on the Berlin reference, with Heineken marked as still to be confirmed. The purity target can be copied. The customer cannot.
Reference · Obrist pack
A hand full of dark pellets. Organic fertilizer is the industrial product the pack ties to Bayer. On the Berlin reference that line is €12.50 million of sales and €10 million of EBITDA. At Year 50 it is €25.0 billion, the largest industrial stream, and the note in the decree is that it still needs an offtake. The pellet is not the contract.
Reference · Obrist pack
Panels lifted high enough for a harvester to pass underneath. Agri-PV is how the brief closes power and a crop on one footprint, beside the fodder houses. It is a reference photograph of a system, not an array in Egypt. Output belongs to the first cluster, measured, before the wider solar claim is treated as bankable.
Reference · Obrist pack
A wing painted with a zero-emissions slogan and a carbon-dioxide mark on the fin. The slogan is not a measurement. The figures that can be read beside this picture, on the Obrist slide, are an Egypt SAF plant of 62.5 million gallons a year, a carbon intensity of about −0.9 kilograms per gallon, capital of about $1.59 billion, and a payback near 2.7 years with finance cost left out. Year-50 SAF revenue in the national case is €5.0 billion. None of it is a signed airline offtake.
Plant types, not manufacturers. Each compound has a rotary milking parlour, a cattle abattoir, a complete-mix digester, a digestate fertilizer plant and an electrified steam-methane reformer. Methanol is a synthesis plant after that reformer, counted to the 250-thousand-tonne plant. Jet fuel is a methanol-to-jet plant — olefins, then oligomerization and hydrogenation — sized at 62.5 million gallons. Iron is a hydrogen shaft furnace of 1 million tonnes.
Year
2034
Cows
200,000
Farm compounds
50
Rotary milking parlour
50
Cattle abattoir
50
Complete-mix digester
50
Digestate fertilizer plant
50
Electrified steam reformer
50
Methanol synthesis plant
3
Methanol-to-jet plant
1
Hydrogen shaft furnace
1
2,000 cows, 5,000 hectares. €120 m capital. €68 m EBITDA after year 3. Munich Re is cited for plant-performance insurance.
| Milk and meat | €9.15m | €2.05m |
| Tomatoes | €6.40m | €3.30m |
| Fertilizer | €12.50m | €10.00m |
| Green H₂ and credits | €43.00m | €34.40m |
| Food-grade CO₂ | €6.00m | €4.80m |
| Methane credits | €13.50m | €13.50m |
| Total | €90.55m | €68.05m |