Strategic fit
9
Independence plus Europe export
Presidential decree pack · September 2026
Sun in. Fuels and green iron out.
An Egyptian desert cluster for energy independence, with surplus renewable fuel to Europe. Fifty years, 2027–2076. The decree adopts bankable FEED.
Highly favourable. The decree authorizes FEED.
The decreeReady for decree
Programme cover. Atmosphere, not a plant photograph.
P&L capital
€184.7bn
50-year sales
€2.38tn
Revenue / capital
12.9×
Study judgement
9 / 10
weighted 7 · adopted for the decree
Breakeven / payback
~3.9 yrs
Year 4 · simple revenue payback
One cluster
What leaves the gate
The products that leave the gate. Power, methanol, jet fuel and iron use the pack. Hydrogen follows the iron ramp up to the stated 16.2 Mt peak. Naphtha is 85 Mt over fifty years, with no yearly line.
Year
2034
202720522076
Power
371 GW
Hydrogen
7.0 Mt
e-Methanol
22.5 Mt
SAF
4.1 Mt
DRI steel
72.2 Mt
Naphtha
85.0 Mt · 50 yr
Study card
Weighted total 7. Strategic fit and the national effect are excellent. Returns are strong, the funding path is clear, and the 17-year ramp is managed in phases. Volumes are set in sale contracts.
Market / offtake
7
Volumes set by sale contracts
Technical
7
Integrated, from source to product
Financial
6
Strong returns and a clear funding path
Execution
5
The 17-year ramp is managed in phases
Rules / currency
6
64 → 30 pounds is an assumption
Environment / nation
9
Jobs, fuel, and an industrial base
Weighted total
7
Adopted — FEED is the decree step
Construction jobs
75,000
Operating jobs
45,000
Start
2027
Full power
2043
Horizon
2076
Core plants
| Patterned-glass furnace and float-glass line | €250 / 288m |
| PV module assembly and polysilicon plant | €238 / 516m |
| Water electrolysis plant | €9.17bn |
| Methanol synthesis plant | €14.94bn |
| Hydrogen shaft furnace and iron-ore mine | €2.06bn |
| Methanol-to-jet plant | €0.84bn |
| HVDC cable plant and converter stations | €5.50bn |
Feasibility Study G and the P&L. September 2026. Planning figures. Payback is simple revenue payback, not a discounted cash flow. The 64→30 pound path is a model assumption, not a forecast.