Year 1
5.8 GW
60 km² · 0.7%
Molecules
Seventeen years to 838 GW. Then thirty-three years of cash.
The ramp is linear in land. Learning sits in execution, not in the megawatt table.
Each plant against the year
Plant types, not manufacturers. The bar is that plant’s output in the pack.
Plant types, not manufacturers. Each bar is the pack’s output of that plant, not a count of factories. Naphtha is a cut from the methanol-to-jet plant. The capital list also has a patterned-glass furnace, a float-glass line, PV module assembly, a polysilicon plant, and an HVDC cable plant with converter stations. Those have no yearly series.
Year
2034
202720522076
Utility-scale photovoltaic plant
371 GW
Water electrolysis plant
7.0 Mt
Methanol synthesis plant
22.5 Mt
Methanol-to-jet plant
4.1 Mt
Hydrogen shaft furnace
72.2 Mt
Build-out
Year 5
216 GW
1,125 km² · 26%
Year 10
475 GW
2,475 km² · 57%
Year 17
838 GW
4,365 km² · 100%
Fifty-year output
| Lifetime, million tonnes | Peak year, from Year 17 | |
|---|---|---|
| Power | 34,851 TWh | 838 GW |
| Methanol | 1,996 Mt | 48.1 Mt |
| Hydrogen | 670 Mt | 16.2 Mt |
| SAF | 393 Mt | 9.5 Mt |
| DRI | 6,872 Mt | 167 Mt |
| Naphtha | 85 Mt | — |
e-Methanol serves EGSVMC first, then Europe.
Egypt demand takes Egyptian methanol first, then Europe’s methanol, then Egyptian hydrogen. Surplus hydrogen rebuilds the Europe export.
| Egypt methanol | Europe methanol | Egypt demand | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 0.56 |
| 2035 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 4.8 |
| Full load | 48.1 total | 25.0 restored | 54.3 |
DRI reaches 167 Mt a year by 2043. Europe takes 62%.
Production from 2030. Plateau 2043. Metric tonnes from the P&L, shown in million tonnes.
Full load
166.5 Mt
Egypt 64.1 · Europe 102.5
Lifetime, million tonnes
6,872 Mt
Egypt 2,643 · Europe 4,229
2030 → 2043
62%
Europe share
Pump math: e-methanol undercuts taxed petrol.
A relative stack from the financial mechanics — not a published pump survey. If Egypt applies petrol-equivalent duty, the gap closes. Lock the tax treatment in the 90-day pack.
Super (fossil)
- Fuel 33.7
- Retailer 6.9
- Delivery 0.9
- Duty 30.2
- VAT 12.1
Model litre ~83.8. Duty and VAT dominate.
e-Methanol
- Fuel 11.0
- Retailer 2.3
- Delivery 0.3
- Duty / VAT 0 – ~14
Model litre 13.5–27.4, if duty stays favourable.
Two markets. One P&L.
Fifty-year sales €2,378.5bn. Egypt €1,227.9bn (52%). Europe €1,150.7bn (48%). Binding offtake is the main de-risk before major capital is released.
Egypt — 52%
Independence and import substitution. EGSVMC methanol, domestic power, DRI for local industry. Model FX: 64 pounds to the euro through 2053, then 30 from 2054. Subsidy and payment terms are still open.
Europe — 48%
RFNBO methanol, SAF, green steel. Target 60–70% of years 10–20 under term sheets. DRI premium cases €150–200/t where they apply. The risk is certification and logistics.